Avaliação das condições de eutrofização em reservatórios: análise de índices de estado trófico e simulação de incertezas
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Data
2025-04-04
Autores
Rocha, Alciany da Silva Christ da
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Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo
Resumo
Eutrophication represents one of the main environmental challenges in reservoirs, negatively affecting water quality and the health of aquatic ecosystems. Accurate assessment of the trophic state is essential for monitoring and managing these environments, yet it is often subject to uncertainties arising from data variability. This study investigated the influence of such uncertainties on the estimation of the Trophic State Index (TSI) in the Águas Claras Reservoir, an important water source for water management in the state of São Paulo. Using the Monte Carlo method, the effects of adopting different numbers of simulations and coefficients of variation (CV) on TSI values were analyzed, based on the methods proposed by Carlson (1977), Toledo et al. (1983), Lamparelli (2004), and Cunha et al. (2013). The analysis showed that increasing the number of simulations contributes to the stabilization of estimates by reducing sampling noise. The results revealed variations among the TSI calculation methods, highlighting the importance of selecting methodologies appropriate to local environmental conditions. The sensitivity analysis, based on the application of the normal frequency distribution, showed that increasing the number of simulations did not significantly impact the central values of the index distributions. The study confirmed the effectiveness and accessibility of the Monte Carlo method as a tool for analyzing uncertainties in water quality data, offering practical support for decision making and for improving water resources management
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Gestão de recursos hídricos , Qualidade da água , Índice de estado trófico (IET) , Monte Carlo , Modelagem da qualidade da água , Water resources management , Water quality , Trophic State Index (TSI) , Water quality modeling