A Coabitação como um escudo contra o retrocesso democrático: evidências da Polônia
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Data
2025-09-02
Autores
Loureiro, Raysa Dantas
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Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo
Resumo
This work examines the impact of cohabitation in semi-presidential regimes on democracy indices, focusing on Poland´s experience. The research is based on the hypothesis that cohabitation, contrary to expectations, acts as a brake against democratic backsliding. The coexistence of two opposing political forces tends to strengthen the independence of political institutions. The approach combines quantitative analysis, using panel models with data from 53 semi-presidential countries adopted after the Third Wave of Democratization, along with a most-similar case study comparing two periods of Polish political history (2015-2023 and 2023-present). The results of the quantitative analysis indicate that the presence of cohabitation is associated with higher electoral and liberal democracy indices, especially when it occurs in regimes with a premier-presidential subtype. The case study analysis also suggests that cohabitation may serve as mechanism that represses authoritarianism, contributing to stability and democratic consolidation. Thus, the findings of this research challenge the idea that cohabitation generates instability and political tensions detrimental to democracy. On the contrary, cohabitation can be an institutional arrangement that strengthens democracies in times of crisis.
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Democracia , Semipresidencialismo , Retrocesso democrático , Premier-presidencialismo , Presidencial-parlamentarismo