Mestrado em Economia

URI Permanente para esta coleção

http://repositorio.ufes.br/handle/10/17551

Nível: Mestrado Acadêmico
Ano de início: 1994
Conceito atual na CAPES: 4
Ato normativo: Homologado pelo CNE (Portaria MEC nº 486, de 14/05/2020). Publicação no DOU em 18/05/2020, seção 1, p. 93. Parecer nº 839/2019 CNE/CES
Periodicidade de seleção: Semestral
Área(s) de concentração: Teoria Econômica
Url do curso: https://economia.ufes.br/pt-br/pos-graduacao/PPGEco/detalhes-do-curso?id=1432

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Agora exibindo 1 - 5 de 170

Mudança estrutural da economia brasileira pós anos 2000: uma análise a partir do modelo de insumo-produto
(Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2026-03-03) Christ, Matheus Zonta Guimarães; Sessa, Celso Bissoli; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7616-0244; https://lattes.cnpq.br/2412019938676749; https://orcid.org/0009-0003-5143-9996; https://lattes.cnpq.br/8347423972144567; Ribeiro, Hilton Manoel Dias; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2729-9674; https://lattes.cnpq.br/8828278463287137; Aguilar, Balmore Alirio Cruz; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7505-073X; https://lattes.cnpq.br/9218320991154026
This study aimed to measure and discuss the structural change of the Brazilian economy between 2000 and 2021, understood as significant transformations in the sectoral composition of the productive structure, in intersectoral linkages, and in the way output is generated, based on the analysis of annual input–output matrices. The central motivation lies in the importance of understanding the functioning and dynamics of the productive structure for the interpretation of the economic phenomena that occurred in the first two decades of the twenty-first century. This approach finds theoretical support in classical literature, such as Hirschman (1958) and Myrdal (1957), and engages with previous studies, particularly Pires (2013), by extending the period analyzed and employing an unprecedented series of annual matrices disaggregated into 51 sectors. Methodologically, the input–output model is applied to Brazil’s matrices, covering all years within the period considered. The use of a specific matrix for each year provides greater precision in the analysis of long-term structural transformations, allowing variations to be captured in greater detail. The results indicate movements without abrupt changes in sectoral orientations, in terms of linkage indices. The observed transitions are restricted to adjacent categories, and the maintenance of virtually the same key sectors throughout the period suggests a limited structural change, in line with the literature. No clear evidence of a generalized loss of intersectoral dynamism is identified, only occasional fluctuations in the variation coefficients. There is, however, a generalized increase in import penetration coefficients in 2021 compared to 2000, indicating possible demand leakages, although this interpretation requires further investigation. Structural decomposition analysis reveals that variations in output are largely explained by changes in demand, with a low technological contribution. The findings reinforce the need for public policies that explicitly consider existing productive linkages, guiding economic policy toward sectors with greater capacity to generate growth, and point to the use of input–output matrices as a permanent tool to support policy formulation.
Taxa real de câmbio e diferencial de produtividade : testes do efeito Balassa-Samuelson para a economia brasileira
(Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2026-02-20) Cordeiro, Felipe Eduardo Megale; Moreira, Ricardo Ramalhete ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1905-4872; https://lattes.cnpq.br/3263921271806291; https://orcid.org/0009-0005-4698-381X; https://lattes.cnpq.br/2543417261882155; Sessa, Celso Bissoli ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7616-0244; https://lattes.cnpq.br/2412019938676749; Gala, Paulo Sérgio de Oliveira Simões ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1972-1188; https://lattes.cnpq.br/7346817451274861
This article investigates the empirical validity of the Balassa-Samuelson (BS) effect in the Brazilian economy over the period 2003–2023. Employing the BEER framework, as proposed by Clark and MacDonald (1998), and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models with the Bound Test, following Pesaran et al. (2001), the study examines the long-run relationship between the real exchange rate (RER) and productivity differentials using alternative proxies. The results provide evidence consistent with the BS effect, albeit sensitive to the measurement employed. The proxy based on Total Factor Productivity (BSPTF) yields coefficients in line with the theoretical hypothesis—according to which productivity gains in the more productive economy (USA) relative to the less productive economy (Brazil) lead to a real depreciation of the brazilian exchange rate—whereas the labor productivity proxies (BSPROD and BSREPR) display signs inconsistent with the theory, in line with recent findings in the international literature (GUBLER; SAX, 2014, 2019). Furthermore, the findings indicate the predominance of financial factors, such as global risk (VIX) and the international investment position (IIP), over real fundamentals in determining the RER. It is concluded that, during the period under analysis, the risk premium exerted a stronger influence than productivity differentials, suggesting a high sensitivity of Brazil’s exchange rate dynamics to external volatility and institutional fragilities
Índices setoriais do mercado acionário brasileiro e eficiência de mercado: uma análise comparativa entre a crise do subprime e a pandemia da COVID-19
(Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2026-01-22) Ferreira Filho, Marco Antônio; Monte, Edson Zambon; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6878-5428; http://lattes.cnpq.br/5543595580825181; https://orcid.org/0009-0009-6496-1314; http://lattes.cnpq.br/5565073752666081; Moreira, Ricardo Ramalhete; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1905-4872; http://lattes.cnpq.br/3263921271806291; Pella, Antônio Fernando Costa; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9992-8682; http://lattes.cnpq.br/8411021390111365
The main objective of this research was to examine the (in)efficiency of the Brazilian financial market, focusing on sectoral indices, during two periods: the Subprime crisis (September 2008 to December 2009) and the COVID-19 pandemic (February 2020 to January 2022). The study tested the validity of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), in its weak form, for return series by assessing the predictability of past price information. To this end, Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MF-DFA) was employed to identify and quantify multifractality in the time series. In addition, the study examined how market (in)efficiency changed between sectors and across crises of different natures, one financial and the other sanitary. The empirical results show that all sectors exhibited multifractal and antipersistent behavior in both periods. Moreover, the financial sector was the least efficient during the Subprime crisis but became the most efficient during the pandemic. Conversely, the industrial sector displayed higher efficiency in 2008, while the real estate sector was the least efficient during the COVID-19 period. The analysis indicates that multifractality stemmed from both long-range correlations and heavy tailed distributions, with the latter having a stronger influence. Finally, sectors were classified according to their degrees of market efficiency in each crisis. The findings contribute to the debate on market efficiency in emerging economies such as Brazil and offer relevant implications for investors and policymakers.
Variação temporal na eficiência de mercado: evidências empíricas para os índices setoriais da B3 (2016-2024)
(Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2025-08-28) Santos, Eduardo Ataíde dos; Monte, Edson Zambon; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6878-5428; http://lattes.cnpq.br/5543595580825181; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6156-3777; ; Moreira, Ricardo Ramalhete; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1905-4872; http://lattes.cnpq.br/3263921271806291; Pella, Antônio Fernando Costa; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9992-8682; http://lattes.cnpq.br/8411021390111365
This study investigates the time-varying degree of (in)efficiency in the Brazilian stock market through the analysis of long-term dependence in the returns and volatilities of seven B3 sectoral indices – IEE, IMOB, IND, IFNC, ICON, IMAT, and UTIL – from January 1, 2016, to July 31, 2024. The fractional integration parameter was estimated using the Geweke and Porter-Hudak (GPH) method, and rolling estimation procedures were employed to capture the dynamic evolution of persistence, while the Bai and Perron (1998, 2003) methodology was applied to identify structural breaks. The results show that returns predominantly exhibit short memory, even during the COVID-19 pandemic, which is consistent with the weak form of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). In contrast, volatilities display temporary long memory during the peak of COVID-19, gradually returning to pre-crisis levels. This pattern is aligned with the Fractal Market Hypothesis (FMH), indicating that market equilibrium is disrupted during crises, increasing persistence, and with the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis (AMH), as markets subsequently adjust and recover efficiency. These findings have implications for investors, portfolio managers, and policymakers: for investors, the short-memory behavior in returns reinforces the unpredictability of prices, while the temporary persistence in volatilities highlights the need for enhanced risk management during crises; for policymakers, persistence indicators can serve as additional tools to monitor sectoral stability and anticipate potential systemic risks, especially in sectors more sensitive to shocks. (FMH), indicating that market equilibrium is disrupted during crises, increasing persistence, and with the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis (AMH), as markets subsequently adjust and recover efficiency. These findings have implications for investors, portfolio managers, and policymakers: for investors, the short-memory behavior in returns reinforces the unpredictability of prices, while the temporary persistence in volatilities highlights the need for enhanced risk management during crises; for policymakers, persistence indicators can serve as additional tools to monitor sectoral stability and anticipate potential systemic risks, especially in sectors more sensitive to shocks.
Impacto econômico da extração de petróleo e gás na margem equatorial no Brasil
(Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2025-03-27) Santos, Bruno Novais Matias dos; Sessa, Celso Bissoli; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7616-0244; http://lattes.cnpq.br/2412019938676749; Grassi, Robson Antônio; Araújo, Lucas Teixeira
Oil and gas exploration in the Brazilian Equatorial Margin has been considered one of the main alternatives for maintaining national production levels, given the maturation of the country's main producing fields. However, exploration in this region involves environmental, technical, and regulatory challenges. Given the importance of the topic for the country, this paper aims to analyze the economic impacts of oil exploration in the Equatorial Margin using the InputOutput Matrix (IOM), measuring its effects on key economic variables. To this end, two types of scenarios were simulated. The first, a short-term scenario, used the Investment Absorption Matrix (IAM) to assess the projected investments of Petrobras in the region until 2029. The second considers the impact of oil production in the Equatorial Margin over 10, 15, and 20 years, using different estimates of the region's production potential. For this latter scenario, the results indicate that oil exploration in the Equatorial Margin can generate significant economic effects across all projected variations. This information contributes to the debate on the exploration of this new oil frontier, highlighting the positive effects of producing a high volume of oil. However, the study also emphasizes that, due to methodological limitations, the results should be interpreted with caution.

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