Mestrado Profissional em Gestão e Regulação de Recursos Hídricos
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- ItemSimulação de qualidade de água com incorporação de análise de incerteza : estudo de caso da bacia hidrográfica do Rio Novo(Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2025-3-28) Ganem, Henrique de Oliveira; Reis, José Antônio Tosta dos ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9916-1469; http://lattes.cnpq.br/7828468159099998; https://orcid.org/0009-0000-3231-9014; http://lattes.cnpq.br/8835023127902921; Mendonça, Antônio Sérgio Ferreira ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4273-0266; http://lattes.cnpq.br/9841888526169409; Santos, Ana Silvia Pereira; https://orcid.org/; http://lattes.cnpq.br/8562963317873136Mathematical models of water quality, which are tools capable of simulating the self purification capacity of watercourses, have gained relevance in water resource management, as they can help prevent future impacts and support decision-making processes within watersheds. However, selecting the parameters and coefficients that make up a model introduces uncertainties into the simulations, as obtaining them can be complex, especially when evaluating water quality. In this context, the combination of uncertainty analysis and mathematical modeling of surface water quality can serve as a valuable tool for water resource management. This study aims to assess the water quality of the Novo River watershed, an important water system in the southern region of the state of Espírito Santo, incorporating uncertainty analysis through the Monte Carlo method into the QUAL-UFMG water quality mathematical model. Groups of 50, 100, 500, 1000, 2000, and 5000 simulations were conducted for the profiles of the following parameters: dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand, inorganic phosphorus, organic phosphorus, organic nitrogen, ammoniacal nitrogen, nitrite, nitrate, and thermotolerant coliforms. The results of the water quality simulations incorporating uncertainty analysis indicated that the Pardo River and its tributary, the Piabinha stream, do not maintain concentrations compatible with the quality standards defined for DO, BOD, and thermotolerant coliforms in Class 2 rivers along their entire lengths, according to Resolution No. 357/2005 of the National Environmental Council. Additionally, it is noteworthy that the number of simulations conducted did not significantly affect the results, although the cumulative frequency curves became closer to each other as the number of simulations increased
- ItemAnálise da influência do El Niño e La Niña na ocorrência de inundações no Estado do Espírito Santo(Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2024-12-11) Oliveira, Gabriel Miller de; Reis, José Antônio Tosta dos ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9916-1469; http://lattes.cnpq.br/7828468159099998; Mendonça, Antônio Sérgio Ferreira ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4273-0266; http://lattes.cnpq.br/9841888526169409; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6199-0912; http://lattes.cnpq.br/8556635266882383; Buarque, Diogo Costa ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2698-520X; http://lattes.cnpq.br/8616432679482558; Silva, Fernando das Graças Braga da ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3803-2257; http://lattes.cnpq.br/4077250337099004This study aims to analyze the influence of the El Niño (EN) and La Niña (LN) phenomena on floods in the state of Espírito Santo (ES), using flow rate data, rainfall records, and synoptic system analyses in the region. The evaluation to be conducted is particularly relevant due to the nature of EN and LN phenomena, which result from ocean-atmosphere interactions and exhibit significant predictability. Advanced knowledge of these phenomena can serve as a foundation for developing strategies for both urban planning and disaster prevention. For the flood-related analysis, flow rate data from hydrological stations on the state’s main rivers were considered, along with precipitation information and synoptic analysis through charts and satellite imagery. The findings indicate that La Niña influences increased precipitation in Espírito Santo and in the regions of neighboring states whose rivers contribute water discharge to Espírito Santo’s rivers. The studied cases suggest that La Niña modulates the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ), shifting it northward from its climatological position and intensifying rainfall in Espírito Santo, causing floods. Investments in advanced early warning technologies and meteorological monitoring, such as those provided by CPTEC, the Brazilian Navy, and the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET), can play a crucial role in providing information about the impact of these climatic phenomena, enabling the prediction of extreme rainfall patterns and floods. When integrated into urban planning and land management processes, this information allows for a more effective and coordinated response to flood threats, enabling the implementation of appropriate preventive and adaptive measures
- ItemAnálise de incertezas associado ao emprego do modelo chuva-vazão SCS : estudo de caso da Bacia Hidrográfica do Córrego Águas Claras(Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2024-09-27) Oliveira Filho, Marcos de Jesus; Reis, José Antonio Tosta dos ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9916-1469; http://lattes.cnpq.br/7828468159099998; https://orcid.org/0009-0007-9400-0894; http://lattes.cnpq.br/0648843337736150; Mendonça, Antônio Sérgio Ferreira ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4273-0266; http://lattes.cnpq.br/9841888526169409; Freitas, Ismael Lourenço de Jesus ; https://orcid.org/; http://lattes.cnpq.br/6767221056470832; Gonçalves, Monica Amorim ; https://orcid.org/0009-0004-7453-7123; http://lattes.cnpq.br/5619914059734915Human activities related to land use and occupation have significantly impacted the hydrological cycle, contributing to climate change and, consequently, increasing the frequency of natural disasters. To evaluate the impacts of these changes on watersheds, it is essential to employ hydrological models capable of simulating surface runoff. However, there is a certain scarcity of data and uncertainties associated with the measurement of hydrological variables and the determination of coefficients and parameters of the models used to estimate peak flow. This study aims to analyze the behavior of peak flows in the Águas Claras watershed, located in the municipality of Águia Branca, Espírito Santo, incorporating uncertainty analysis conducted using the Monte Carlo method into the rainfall-runoff model proposed by the Soil Conservation Service (SCS). The results demonstrate that the approach for estimating intense rainfall can lead to significant differences in simulated flows. In this study, intense rainfall estimated using the Plúvio software resulted in substantially higher peak flows compared to those obtained using an intense rainfall equation calibrated with the Chow-Gumbel method. The evaluation of peak flows, considering the incorporation of uncertainty analysis into the rainfall-runoff model, showed greater variations in simulations where precipitation-related variables, such as duration and precipitation depth, were perturbed. Although the distribution of peak flows differed when changing the probability distribution used in the random generation process of the perturbed variables, the extreme flow values did not vary significantly. Additionally, increasing the number of simulations did not significantly influence the distribution of estimated peak flows. The integration of uncertainty analysis into the SCS rainfall-runoff model revealed that significant variations can occur in peak flow estimates, emphasizing the importance of incorporating uncertainty analysis into hydrological assessments
- ItemEstruturação do plano colaborativo de comunicação e informação a partir da percepção ambiental dos integrantes do comitê de bacia hidrográfica e atores estratégicos(Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2018-12-20) Fraga, Ranielle Almeida; Buarque, Diogo Costa ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2698-520X; http://lattes.cnpq.br/8616432679482558; Tedesco, Angélica Nogueira de Souza ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5141-1104; http://lattes.cnpq.br/9039804385931776; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0257-7201; http://lattes.cnpq.br/3071055328070043; Rabelo, Desirée Cipriano ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9399-8313; http://lattes.cnpq.br/2092473450223674; Mello, Luís Gustavo Miranda ; https://orcid.org/; http://lattes.cnpq.br/3810233758384966; Lacerda, Fátima Kzam Damaceno de ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3990-7665; http://lattes.cnpq.br/4276464190181885The water resources plan is based on the triad of participation, integration and decentralization. The basis of this plan is the diagnosis and the prognosis of scenarios elaborated by means of the compilation and systematization of data and information on the hydrographic basin. The objective of this work is to structure a collaborative communication and information to subsidize a water resources plan, based on the survey of Environmental Perception (PA) of the Hydrographic Basin Committee (CBH) and key actors. Through a case study, a collective communication plan was constructed, aiming to gather actions and efforts to add value and consolidate the information seeking a clear, concise and validated language that qualifies the institution and the public for the planning process of the bowl. Using the qualitative quantitative approach, basin data and the characterization of CBH members were produced. Based on this knowledge construction, a database and information was obtained from the territory and from these social actors. Through a participatory workshop, we identified the communication processes regarding: communication tools, frequency, language, content and message / content communicators, accessibility, transparency, integration and interactivity. The constructed database was analyzed by means of triangulation of methods, and using the SWOT matrix to subsidize the structuring of the plan. The results of these two procedures were organized, systematized and presented again to the social actors (CBH and key actors) for other contributions and validation. It is observed that the collective structuring of the communication and information plan provides a viable strategy to communicate the local knowledge captured by environmental perception. It also identifies the flow of information and knowledge about the basin, consolidates the communication processes of the CBH, favors and broadens the dialogue among the members of the committee, and consequently strengthens these actors in the actions of planning and management of the river basin
- ItemModelo conceitual para sistematização e avaliação de indicadores de sustentabilidade para sistemas agroflorestais no contexto da gestão de recursos hídricos(Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2019-07-19) Machado Júnior, José de Aquino; Buarque, Diogo Costa ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2698-520X; http://lattes.cnpq.br/8616432679482558; Teixeira, Edmilson Costa ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7535-8689; http://lattes.cnpq.br/2223526989758235; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1296-6510; http://lattes.cnpq.br/4675072098126067; Reis, José Antonio Tosta ; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9916-1469; http://lattes.cnpq.br/7828468159099998; Sossai, Marcos Franklin ; https://orcid.org/; http://lattes.cnpq.br/5566667702204394In recent years, forest recovery has been one of the main activities in watershed management, since its use can promote environmental improvements in the hydrological cycle as well as socioeconomic enhancements thus helping in sustainable territorial development. In this context, the use of Agroforestry Systems - SAFs is one of the main forest recovery strategies, because they are considered more sustainable than others forest cover and in addition, they are an alternative to the intensive production systems. In spite of the importance of the SAFs in the forest recovery theme, in general, the studies that consider the sustainability assessment do not contemplate many aspects/factors that could influence their application by potential rural producers. Due to the benefits of these systems this work aimed at enlarging knowledge about factors associated with their sustainability, as well as to establish guidelines for the improvement of its application. Therefore, a literature review was carried out as well as an observation of the State Program for Increasing Forest Coverage - Reforestation and the State Policy for Water Resources of Espírito Santo. Then these data were related to the SAFs by the use of a technic based on the methodological framework titled "Sustainability of Agriculture and Natural Resources - SARN ", a conceptual model was developed for the systematization and evaluation of sustainability indicators for SAFs. As a result, 98 indicators were obtained and systematized in levels of descriptors, significant elements, significant categories and evaluation dimensions, the distribution by dimension were: Environmental - 40 indicators (41%); Sociocultural - 28 indicators (29%); Economic -18 indicators (18%) and Political Institutional - 12 indicators (12%). The proposed structure for the systematization of the indicators provides a qualitative and systemic evaluation of the sustainability of the resources and the operations involved in the SAFs that subsidises guidelines for improving the use of SAFs in different situations in the watersheds. Most of the indicators are quick implementation and not onerous as well as they depend on direct visual evaluations and interviews. For the minority of the indicators more calculus and a complex laboratory analyzes will be needed