Avaliação da corrente do Brasil em um cenário de mudanças climáticas utilizando o Modelo Brasileiro de Sistemas Terrestres (BESM)
Nenhuma Miniatura disponível
Data
2021-08-27
Autores
Koppe, João Victor Carminati
Título da Revista
ISSN da Revista
Título de Volume
Editor
Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo
Resumo
This work evaluates the performance of ocean dynamic simulations reproduced by BESM-OA2.5 for South Atlantic Ocean in históric period and analyses its predictions for the end of 21 century based on RCP8.5 climatic change scenario. The BESM is the Brazilian Earth System Model -Ocean Atmosphere versão 2.5 (BESM-OA2.5) developed by National Institute of spatial research (INPE) that composed the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) for climatic change scenarios of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In this evaluation were analysed equator parallel sections in different latitudes integrated on water column the mean velocity fields, temperatures, volumétrico and thermal fluxes throughout 255 years of simulation using two experiments, the históric (𝐶𝑂 2históric emissions) and RCP8.5 - Representative Concentration Pathway- (𝐶𝑂 2 projected emissions throughout 21 century). Both experiments were compared to each other for key períods of RCP8.5 experiment. The obtained results for the historic experiment did reproduce satisfactorily the large scale flow of western boundary of South Atlântic (SA) and Brazil Current (CB). Towards the end of the century, changes in the velocity and temperature of the evaluated sections were observed, which resulted in changes in volumetric and thermal fluxes at the end of the 21st century. There was an increase in transport at the highest latitudes assessed, a decrease in transport at the lowest latitudes assessed, and loss of seasonal signal and energy from transport events. Additionally, a decrease in the volumetric flux in the transoceanic section at 25°S and an increase in the heat flux exported northward was observed. These alterations are related to the velocity anomalies of the superficial and deep currents of the Atlantic Southern Revolution Cell (AMOC).
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Correntes de Contorno Oeste , modelo de sistemas terrestres , mudanças climáticas