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Persistência e determinantes dos desvios inflacionários no Brasil
(Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2016-06-01) Abdala, André; Moreira, Ricardo Ramalhete; Nicolay, Rodolfo Tomás da Fonseca; Brasil, Gutemberg Hespanha
This work performs an econometric analysis on the determinants of inflation deviations in Brazil, from January 2003 to December 2014, through of OLS and GMM estimations. At first, the theoretical elements that hypothetically explain the occurrence of such deviations in the inflation targeting regime are lifted. In sequence, a review of the empirical literature for Brazil based on studies that tested the inflationary phenomenon. The empirical results of this study indicate a high inertia of inflation deviations in the period studied, with the consideration of the effects of monetary policy credibility contrary to the expected by theory. In addition, a robustness analysis identified the presence of trade-off in short-term between unemployment and inflation deviations, suggesting BCB can explore these channels to mitigate the deviations from the target announced for the inflation rate. The work also obtained results that external conditions, such as changes in commodity and currency prices, cannot be credited as determinants of inflation deviations in this period, so these deviations are linked to household factors.